Brazil: Food Security’s

This op-ed originally appeared in Environmental Finance.

Extreme weather, trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and changing consumption patterns have exposed vulnerabilities in global food systems. What was once viewed mainly as an agricultural issue now shapes trade policy, industrial strategy, and long-term capital allocation as governments and businesses seek more reliable food supply chains.

Against this backdrop, Brazil occupies a distinctive position. Already one of the world's most important food producers and exporters, it is becoming more central to debates about food security, supply-chain resilience, and long-term capital allocation. Soybean exports reached nearly 99 million metric tons in 2024, more than double the volume shipped in 2013, and Brazil shipped 64.9 million metric tons in the first half of 2025 alone, highlighting its growing importance in supplying international markets.

Yet Brazil's significance extends beyond production volumes. Unlike many large economies, Brazil combines abundant natural resources with a demographic profile that allows it to serve both domestic and international demand. China and India are major agricultural producers, but much of their output is required to meet domestic consumption needs. Brazil's agricultural system, by contrast, has evolved with a strong export orientation while continuing to support a population of more than 200 million people. Its ability to generate substantial export surpluses is becoming increasingly relevant as countries seek to diversify food sourcing and reduce concentration risks.

The geography of food production is also changing. Climate shifts are altering growing conditions across traditional agricultural regions, while environmental, social, and geopolitical considerations are reshaping sourcing decisions. Food is increasingly being viewed not simply as a commodity, but as a strategic resource. That shift gives Brazil advantages that are difficult to replicate elsewhere. Its continental geography spans multiple climatic zones, providing production flexibility that smaller or more geographically concentrated producers often lack.

Decades of investment in agricultural research, particularly through institutions such as EMBRAPA, have strengthened the country's ability to adapt crops and farming systems to changing environmental conditions. Together, scientific capability, geographic diversity, and productive capacity help position Brazil as a significant contributor to long-term global food security.

Scale and diversification in a fragmenting world

For institutional investors, the relevance of this trend lies not simply in agriculture itself, but in what food security increasingly represents. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, insurers, and family offices are looking for exposure that combines scale, resilient demand, and diversification beyond traditional markets. Periods of geopolitical uncertainty often expose concentration risks within global supply chains, making sectors linked to essential services, predictable demand, and diversified trade relationships more important to long-term portfolio construction. Food systems sit at the center of all three.

Brazil offers a rare combination of scale and breadth. Its food and resource economy extends beyond primary production to logistics, storage, processing, agricultural technology, renewable fuels, forestry, and export networks. This matters because diversification is no longer confined to asset allocation. It is also shaping how governments and corporations think about supply chains, energy systems, and critical resources.

Brazil's openness to trade and its ability to serve a broad range of markets give it flexibility that is increasingly valuable, while broadening the destination mix for soybean exports remains part of the long-term opportunity.

Productivity-led growth without expanding frontiers

Perhaps more importantly, future growth does not depend solely on expanding agricultural frontiers. Research from EMBRAPA indicates that approximately 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland could be converted into productive agricultural use — roughly 280,000 km², comparable to the size of Italy and somewhat larger than the UK. That would be enough to increase Brazil's grain-growing area by around 35% relative to the area cultivated during the 2022/23 crop season.

According to a study by Itaú BBA, based on EMBRAPA data, full conversion of these 28 million hectares would require estimated investment of R$188 billion to R$482 billion, or roughly US$35 billion to US$90 billion, depending on the degree of degradation and existing on-farm infrastructure. More broadly, an estimated 105 million hectares of pastureland show some degree of degradation — approximately 1.05 million km², roughly equivalent to Egypt, or to France and Germany combined.

The scale of this land-restoration agenda underscores the capital opportunity for institutional investors, while creating scope for productivity improvements, more efficient land use, and cashflow-generating assets linked to long-term agricultural demand without the need to expand into native forests. This distinction matters. The longer-term opportunity is not simply to produce more food, but to improve the productivity and resilience of an existing production base at a time when both food demand and climate pressures are increasing.

It also aligns with the direction of regulation. As importing markets — including the European Union — tighten requirements on deforestation-free sourcing and traceability, production growth achieved through restoring degraded land, rather than clearing new land, is likely to carry a market-access advantage.

As food security rises on political and economic agendas worldwide, countries capable of supplying international markets consistently and at scale are likely to become more significant. Brazil's combination of productive capacity, export orientation, scientific expertise, and room for productivity-led growth places it in a relatively small group of countries able to respond to that challenge.

From food security to portfolio resilience

For long-term portfolios, the implications extend beyond agriculture. The evolution of global food systems is increasingly linked to economic security, supply-chain resilience, climate adaptation, and resource efficiency. These are no longer niche considerations; they are becoming central to how long-term risks and opportunities are assessed.

In practice, exposure to the theme is less about commodity prices than about the assets that move, store, process, and finance food: transport and storage infrastructure, processing capacity, agricultural technology, land restoration, and credit to producers investing in productivity.

Where these assets are linked to export revenues or supported by suitable hedging structures, they may also help manage currency volatility while offering the potential for competitive risk-return characteristics and more stable cashflows. In that context, Brazil's importance is not simply that it produces food. It is that it remains one of the few countries capable of helping meet rising global demand while offering the scale, flexibility, and productive capacity required in a more uncertain world.

As global supply chains continue to evolve, Brazil's role in the future of food security is becoming harder to ignore for global investors.

About the authors
Hector Gomez Ang is the Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director of Finance in Motion.
José Pugas Filho is the CEO of Finance in Motion, Brazil.